The Kansas City Chiefs are attempting to achieve a feat that has eluded even the greatest NFL dynasties: a three-peat as Super Bowl champions. With Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, Travis Kelce leading the receiving corps, and Andy Reid calling the plays, the Chiefs have remained a perennial powerhouse. Yet, as dominant as they’ve been, the 2025 postseason is shaping up to be their toughest challenge yet, and I believe they won’t achieve the historic three-peat. One major reason is their declining points-per-game (PPG) production, which highlights cracks in their once-dominant offensive machine.

In the 2023 season, the Chiefs averaged a league-best 29.2 PPG, an output that made them nearly unstoppable. However, their PPG dropped to 26.4 in 2024 and further to 24.7 in 2025. While still respectable, this decline indicates a shift in their offensive efficiency. Defensive coordinators across the league have adapted to Andy Reid’s schemes, limiting explosive plays and forcing the Chiefs into more conservative drives. Without consistent big-play production, the Chiefs’ margin for error has significantly narrowed.

The drop in offensive output also reflects roster challenges. Kelce, while still elite, is 35 years old, and age has begun to affect his explosiveness. The departure of key contributors like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman left the Chiefs searching for reliable wide receiver options. and Skyy Moore has flashed potential but haven’t consistently filled the void. Additionally, the offensive line, a strength in recent seasons, has faced injuries and inconsistent play, further hindering their ability to sustain high-scoring drives.

Another factor working against the Chiefs is the strength of their competition. Teams like the Buffalo Bills, and Baltimore Ravens have explosive offenses that can match the Chiefs point-for-point, and their defenses have shown the ability to frustrate Mahomes. In their regular-season losses, Kansas City struggled to put up points against top-tier defenses, a worrying trend heading into the playoffs. 

The playoffs amplify every weakness, and Kansas City’s lower PPG could prove costly in tight games. While their defense has improved under Steve Spagnuolo, it’s not enough to carry the team in shootouts against high-scoring opponents. The Chiefs' reliance on Mahomes to deliver game-saving heroics isn’t sustainable, especially when their offensive output doesn’t provide a cushion. In postseason play, where mistakes are magnified, even a brief scoring drought could spell disaster.

Ultimately, while the Chiefs have the talent and experience to compete, their declining PPG and vulnerabilities on offense suggest they’ll fall short of the three-peat. The NFL’s parity and the relentless improvement of their rivals make this postseason a daunting challenge. History may one day look back on the Chiefs as a dynasty, but this season will likely be remembered as the year their quest for a three-peat ended